Saturday, November 10, 2007

Understanding Different Forms of Deterrence

Trying to rationalize Reagan's decision to embark on the "Star Wars" is proving to be very difficult. In order to do so you need to convince yourself that creating such a system is 1) possible and 2) 100% effective. Two decades of research has shown that a missle defense system is possible, but far from effective. Reagan states that Americans should feel safe not because they know American retaliation is imminent, but because the United States possesses the ability to actually intercept and destroy a Russian missle before it reaches its target. This is where the assumption that a missle defense system must be 100% effective. If the United States were bombed while a missle defense system was in place what would the next action be? With so much investment in the missle defense system, could the United States then retaliate with nuclear weapons after the failure of the missle defense system? In such an environment instead of an arms race, countries will simply build missles that can evade the missle defense system, or even worse, launch multiple missles at once under the reasoning that one has to get through. Did Reagan actually believe that a missle shield could be 100% effective?

Mutually assured destruction was a very effective detterence policy that had prevented nations from using nuclear weapons against one another. So, why introduce a new policy of deterrence to replace one that had proven to work? I can think of two explanations. First, Reagan possibly believed that it was a cause the nation would rally around like the Space Race of the 50's and 60's. Encouraging more children to learn science and math in order to contribute to the building missle defense system. This did not come to fruition. Second, more outragious, but not entirely impossible given the subsequent medical information about Reagan's deteriorating mental health, Reagan desired the United States have an omnipotent status over the rest of the world. An essay in the 1950's by Robert Strauss-Hupe called "The Balance of Tomorrow" called on the United States to extend its influence and values over the entirety of the world. By creating a missle defense system in the way Reagan likely envisioned it (100% effective), Reagan could claim dominion over the rest of the world. Expanding American influence over the entirety of the globe with no threat of resistance. With a perfectly effective missle defense system in place the United States could make demands of any country backed up by a large nuclear arsenal. That country would then be powerless to do anything but comply because the principle of mutal destruction no longer would exist.

After much thought those are the only two reasons I can come up with to explain a missle defense program. Essentially, neither is a good reason. So, there is/was no good reason for the development of a missle defense system.

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